LOS ANGELES — Let it never be said that the satellite industry lacks ambition. There is no shortage of players, from all parts of the value chain keen to throw their hat into the ring for direct-to-device (D2D) services. Globalstar, Iridium, Starlink, Lynk, AST Space Mobile, Inmarsat, Ligado, Omnispace, Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm, Mediatek and T-Mobile are just a few.

Currently, there are three different technology approaches to this market. Some providers are using mobile satellite (MSS) frequencies, others are using existing cellular frequencies and a couple are using the recently announced 5G NTN (non-terrestrial networks) standards. All of these come with challenges and certain benefits.

MSS

Using already-licensed MSS frequencies gives satellite operators a huge advantage in that they already have approval to land their signals in a country. However, such approval is usually at the country level. The disadvantages are that MSS uses L and S-band, neither of which has the bandwidth to deliver a true MMS service. MSS also requires modification to the handset in the form of a new chip to receive these signals.

Apple was first to market using this approach. It partnered with Globalstar in November 2022 to offer emergency messaging on the iPhone 14.

Qualcomm is also enabling two-way messaging using Iridium L-band spectrum, with its Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 chip. The chip will be incorporated into the next generation of Motorola, Nothing, Honor, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi cell phones. While this is designed as an emergency-only service, the press release projected beyond SMS texting to “other messaging applications.”

Cellular Frequencies

Using cellular frequencies from space is an alternative approach and one that requires no modification to the handset, but does require a large, very complex antenna on the satellite. It also comes with more regulatory and practical hurdles.

Unlike MSS, terrestrial frequencies are not licensed for satellite usage. Some countries have taken steps toward granting these licenses, including the United States. On March 16, the FCC issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) to facilitate this.

The other major issue with satellite using cellular frequencies is interference on the ground. Sufficient guards would need to be in place to ensure that there is no spillover into other geographic areas.

Currently, three companies are placing their bets on this technology: Starlink and two newcomers, Lynk and AST SpaceMobile.

According to Lynk CEO Charles Miller, his company is the most advanced. Lynk is the only one that has a commercial license from the FCC. Unlike Starlink, that is partnering with T-Mobile, or AST SpaceMobile that is partnering with AT&T, Lynk does not have a mobile network operator (MNO) partner in the U.S., but it does have “dozens of MNO partners elsewhere.”

Lynk has three LEO satellites in orbit and plans to start commercial service in April, which will be a store-and-forward service. The full constellation for the messaging service is designed to be 150 satellites, which Miller aims to launch by the end of 2024. Broadband service needs 1,000 satellites and according to Miller, these will be in service by the end of 2026.

AST SpaceMobile launched its first satellite last year and claims that testing is going well. The complete constellation is planned to be 168 satellites. AST is working with Rakuten Mobile in Japan and has been granted a preliminary experimental license there as well as in the U.S.

Starlink has yet to receive licensing approval in the U.S. Nevertheless, the company’s VP of Enterprise Sales Jonathan Hofeller, announced at Satellite 2023 that it will begin testing later this year.

5G NTN

There are two versions of the recently released 5G non-terrestrial network (NTN) standard: NTN-IoT and NTN-New Radio (NTN-NR). NTN-IoT, as the name implies, is designed for low data rate applications, such as text messaging. NTN-NR is designed for higher bandwidth applications, including voice and using standard apps.

The GSMA points out that in spite of this technology being named “5G,” “speeds are more likely to be akin to 3G, at 3-5 Mbps.”

IoT chips from Mediatek, one of two companies (Samsung being the other) using the NTN standard, have already been incorporated into the Motorola Defy2 cellphone and the identical Cat® S75. There is also a Motorola Defy Bluetooth dongle that will turn any phone into a satellite phone. These are all manufactured by Bullitt and include Bullitt Satellite Connect (BSC) and Bullitt Satellite Messenger (BSM). The phones connect to Inmarsat GEO satellites. Service is due to be launched in Europe in April.

2023: A Reality Check?

These are just the main contenders in the increasingly crowded D2D field. All of the approaches face significant challenges. Using cellular frequencies from space is dependent on MNOs in each country obtaining the necessary licenses. Regulatory bodies are not known for speedy responses and using MSS frequencies will prohibit a true multi-media experience.

Adrian Hillier, a consultant with The Technology Partnership, an independent scientific and engineering consultancy working with satellite and cellular companies, feels confident that 2023 is the watershed year that will see some players exit the market.

“The technology is there,” he commented. “What is not there is the capital to build these systems.”

High capital requirements have always been a challenge for the industry. An additional hurdle could come from carriers that are reluctant to reapportion precious spectrum resources.

“At best this is incremental revenue for an MNO, maybe something that has to be done in order to meet 100% coverage requirements, that some countries are imposing,” Hillier added. “For 5G IoT a minimum of 5MHz contiguous spectrum is needed, for NR, 10-15MHz is needed. Given that sending signals to space is a very inefficient use of spectrum, just how much will the MNOs be willing to allocate to NTN, to serve a minority of their customers?”

Several operators and potential operators have already signed agreements with MNOs to use their spectrum. Others, like Iridium, Globalstar and Mediatek/Bullitt may not need much cooperation from the MNOs beyond them carrying their cellphones.

Both market and technology factors have led to a range of conclusions about the D2D market. Some analysts claim it is “desperately niche.” However, with potentially billions of subscribers in reach, others have referred to it as the “largest opportunity in satcom’s history.” Time will tell which assessment is correct and which technologies are the best fit.

Elisabeth Tweedie has over 20 years experience at the cutting edge of new communications entertainment technologies. She is the founder and President of Definitive Direction, a consultancy that focuses on researching and evaluating the long-term potential for new ventures, initiating their development, and identifying and developing appropriate alliances.

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