Artificial Intelligence (AI) is doing many things on Earth and may soon drive your car. But there’s a world of new AI applications for space as well. To uncover the possibilities, Constellations Podcast spoke with Scott Herman, CEO of Cognitive Space, which recently raised $4 million in seed funding for its artificial intelligence-based software, and Nathan De Ruiter, Managing Director of Euroconsult Canada during an episode recorded on the show floor at Satellite 2022 last month.

Herman introduced the concept of AI for space by explaining how it could assist companies launching new constellations, helping with everything from the technical processes of flying and deconflicting satellites to the business applications of how to bring their satellites to market to monetize them.

Herman, whose company was chosen for the Amazon Web Services Space Accelerator, a program for startups to help solve the biggest challenges in space, said AI can help determine how satellites are being put to work every day. “A lot of the new space companies are thinking about how they're going to build out their ground segment architecture, and ground segment isn't simply comms, it's how do you monetize the satellites? How do you take orders from customers and partners? How do you tell the satellites what to do and de-conflict them? This is really where the AI comes in.”

He explained how reinforcement learning, a type of AI, can help determine potential solutions, potential combinations, and how to task satellites to best meet the expectations of customers. “They can be tuned for revenue, they can be tuned for capacity, they can be tuned for revisit or monitoring,” he added.

De Ruiter of Euroconsult added how AI was key to unlocking the value from torrents of data being generated in orbit. Now that the bottlenecks in Earth observation (EO) have been relieved by LEO constellations, the next step, he said, is to build and develop the analytics around it. “The market is going to expand pretty rapidly, but in all different ways,” De Ruiter said. But, with so many potential uses for EO data and imagery, he also cautioned that there needs to be a value chain or an ecosystem formed around those applications to make them viable. “Selling into mineral extraction versus agriculture is a completely different set of distributors, resellers, as well as end users,” he added.

AI to Reduce Risk

With the growth of LEO constellations raising concerns around satellite interference and the potential for collision events, Herman pointed to AI’s role in keeping a more crowded space safe. He cited its application not only to the scheduling, positioning, and station-keeping of satellites, but also to the larger matter of space situational awareness.

“So it's not so much about your satellite, it's about knowing where the other 10,000

satellites are, and being able to understand not only satellites, but all of the other things that are floating around out there that could impact your mission and your ability to complete it.”

Cognitive Space recently completed experiments with military and intelligence agencies, helping the U.S. government and its allies assess their use of this new wave of commercial capabilities. “It's the defense use of commercial capabilities, primarily around remote sensing,” Herman said.

In the military realm, Herman noted AI’s application in two primary categories. One is tasking satellites, akin to a robot taking commands. “You're going to say, ‘Take a picture here,’ or ‘Turn, take a picture there. Now, downlink your data,’ rinse and repeat thousands of times per day.”

The other is data exploitation. He cited computer vision for handling data volumes that have exceeded human capacities, as well as AI for improving monitoring processes and latency. Referring to the U.S. government and its allies’ interests in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance), “I need to be able to do it very, very quickly, I need to be able to do it at a cadence that lets me do pattern of life, and operational tempo, and monitoring of facilities and activities, and to determine anomalies against that.” Specifically, he cited the need to “maintain custody of things on the ground” and how to task and tip and cue other assets.

Cyber & Other Threats

Asked about cyber risks as mega constellations continue to grow and interconnect with terrestrial networks, De Ruiter explained the attack surface isn’t limited to space assets, but also the ground infrastructure, which is expected to grow exponentially to provide connectivity from the constellations.

Herman agreed. He noted the role AI and machine learning could play, helping monitor network activity and scan massive web logs in real time to detect issues and perform forensics. But he also warned of a lesser-known cyber problem related to the data itself, and the ability for it to be changed to represent something different. ”If I'm taking satellite images of Ukraine and can insert tanks where they don't belong or I can pull tanks out, that ability to ensure that the veracity of the data is secure is a special cybersecurity concern that relates to Earth observation data.”

Sustainable LEO Growth

Looking ahead to longer term viability of the sector, the podcast host cited a report issued by Credit Suisse that warned there was room economically for just three large scale LEO constellations, and that growth beyond the 50,000 satellites projected by 2030 could lead to devaluation.

De Ruiter cautioned against such an outlook, saying there was more at play than just “pure economics.” He cited public sector interest in LEO constellations, noting OneWeb’s support from the UK government, and how Telesat and SpaceX both started off with government support. He pointed to Ukraine as an example of how constellations are playing various roles. “Governments have interest in bringing connectivity. And on top of that, if you look at what is happening right now in terms of military conflict, there are other interests, where sovereignty and protection come into play.”

Herman acknowledged that there could be a market problem if all the satellites or mega constellations were concentrated in one niche application like broadband internet access, but dismissed the notion of a limit. The realm of space, he noted, offered a host of different mission types, from IoT and remote sensing observation, to a wide variety of use cases around national security monitoring, economic monitoring, and environmental monitoring. Noting the excitement around the new space revolution, Herman saw the opportunity for “lots and lots of new companies, new business models, and new technologies to be applied.

“There's a lot of room up there, there's a lot of business models, there's a lot of money flowing into the space, and I think we'll see phenomenal growth over the next 5, 10, 15 years, and I don't see space as a limiting factor for that.”

Click here to listen to the full interview.