1. What emerging technology is or will be the most consequential for your area of the satellite industry?

Dave Wajsgras, CEO, Intelsat: For us, it’s a combination of our multi-orbit strategy and the virtualization of our space assets and ground infrastructure, including enabling technologies such as cloud computing. Intelsat operates 58+ satellites in GEO orbit. We have partnered and have alliances with some of the top LEO operators, and we’re continuing to develop our plans to potentially deploy a MEO satellite constellation. Like most industries, the satellite industry is engaging in a digital transformation where software is replacing physical hardware systems. Intelsat is developing innovations that will drive greater network speed, efficiency, and flexibility. Specifically, we are continuing to virtualize our network—from gateways and ground infrastructure to the satellites in orbit and network management conduits that connect it all. More specifically, we’re investing in agile, standards-based software-defined satellites (SDS) that can better interoperate with neighboring networks and dynamically respond to changing user requirements – from inflight Wi-Fi on commercial airlines to critical government communications, to response and recovery in disaster zones.

Eva Berneke, CEO, Eutelsat: Eutelsat’s innovation agenda has three clear objectives, which outline where we believe consequential technological changes will emerge:

• Supporting our telecom pivot, in particular, the combination with OneWeb (terminals/antennas, secured communications, optical links…)
• Generating new business opportunities leveraging our current and future capabilities (direct-to-device phone and IoT; SIGINT Signal Intelligence)
• Contributing to CSR objectives (SSA/STM, space logistics and clean space)

Patompob (Nile) Suwansiri, CEO, Thaicom: On the GEO satellites, the software-defined HTS is a significant breakthrough that allows flexibility in the changing market. The continuous development of the LEO constellations will also play a role in the new landscape in which Thaicom sees the NGSO players as a complement to our existing services.

Michel Dothey, CCO & Thierry Eltges, CEO, neXat: Indubitably, the arrival of LEO constellations. That is already shaking the whole satellite ecosystem because some of them (like Starlink) are building their own ecosystems without any consideration of the existing ones [built] over several decades!

Phil Carrai, President, Kratos Space Division: I see three existing/emerging technology areas driving the satellite industry:

1. Reusable launch – SpaceX changed the market and others struggling to catchup
2. Regenerative dynamic payloads – change the economics on where, and how much capacity can be applied
3. Dynamic ground – changes the economics on how capacity is consumed and integrated into broader communication networks

All of these technology areas are driving to meet insatiable demand for more data capacity of all types (IoT, broadband, mobility, etc.).

Tim Ellis, Co-Founder & CEO, Relativity Space: Very clearly, artificial intelligence [will be most consequential]. With our software and data-driven approach to additive manufacturing, AI will be a huge accelerant. Our factory is already able to capitalize on these advances, whether it's for automated quality control and detection or using AI to help create innovative alloys that did not exist previously. With further breakthroughs in large language models, it’s certainly going to increase the potential.

2. How do you see financial market conditions impacting the sector today or in the near term?

Ellis, Relativity Space: Financial conditions will continually evolve, but the success of a business ultimately comes down to product-market fit. At Relativity, we have built a sustainable business case addressing a launch market gap that customers and investors are aligned with. Not all companies can say the same thing and unfortunately, we will see fewer surviving companies. In the space industry, we often deem failure and shifting market conditions as cataclysmic events. They certainly are for the companies and people affected, but it is actually a very natural element of venture-backed technology. And that’s part of what makes it so exciting.

Carrai, Kratos: One of the biggest issues impacting the sector is inflation and how that’s driving costs and access to capital for many industry players. There is no short-term answer here. On inflation driving costs, it’s got to be designing for cost on the total system, not just squeezing vendors or component makers on existing designs. For capital access, the harsh answer is good teams with good business models. Some customers will find a way to survive, and others won’t. Some of the best companies tend to get built in difficult times because capital finds them.

Suwansiri, Thaicom: In the near term, the high interest rate environment and the macroeconomic uncertainties are factors that we need to deal with as we navigate through this period. [T]herefore, financial discipline and risk management are ever more important to ensure sustainable growth.

Berneke, Eutelsat: Investing in space comes with a specific set of challenges. Space is a long-term game. Infrastructure/CAPEX investments are required most of the time. This does, however, create barriers to entry and [it] generates major profit opportunities in the long run. Deep tech requires time to develop, test, certify new technologies and get them adopted by customers (e.g. terminals critical for the development of many satellite services). After a period of euphoria in 2020-2021, private investments into space have slowed down rather abruptly. Space projects, large and small, now need to be able to be supported by established players and/or institutions and present a clear path towards the market and towards profitability. The European Space ecosystem is thriving with great innovations and initiatives, but our investment capabilities are paling compared to the U.S. We probably need more support from the institutional investors, while developing, in the private sector, a longer-term less risk-averse culture towards space.

3. What do you see as the next big disruption in the satellite industry?

Suwansiri, Thaicom: A possible game changer could be the future direct-to-device technology as this could open up to the mass market.

Dothey & Eltges, neXat: Probably the arrival of multiple next-generation mega constellations Amazone Kuiper constellation and then "Guowang" the Chinese one and finally IRIS² for highly secure and Governmental communications, but also the Direct to Phone satellite constellations that will change completely the distribution model and the access to the market.

Berneke, Eutelsat: [The next big disruption could be] a fully integrated multi-orbit offer from ground to the satellite, completely seamless for the customer.

Ellis, Relativity Space: As demand for satellites grows, so does the need for launch services – particularly in the medium-to-heavy lift category. The next big disruption will be a new generation of commercial providers, like Relativity, coming online with high-performance rockets, bringing optionality to a supply-constrained market. In the future, I believe LEO satellite constellations will be upgraded and replenished more frequently than GEO satellites, further exacerbating the existing supply-demand gap and reinforcing the need for a second diversified provider to enable reliable access to space.

Wajsgras, Intelsat: I see two significant disrupters. The continued emergence of non-geostationary orbits and “small sats” will keep disrupting the industry. LEO providers are making inroads and ramping up manufacturing, which we believe will generate new partnership opportunities for Intelsat. Today, our partnerships with LEO providers, along with our ESA antenna, are driving multi-orbit solutions for airlines by delivering access to satellites in either GEO or LEO orbits, depending on the need. As I’ve said for some time now, digital transformation is here to stay, and we are still in the early innings. The changes that will be driven by advancement in software technologies, think artificial intelligence, are going to continue to disrupt every industry including ours. Intelsat is embracing digital transformation on every level.