1. The Satellite Connectivity Industry Is Poised for Growth

   Starlink and OneWeb broadband constellations are a reality but business cases triggered many discussions. With more constellations to be deployed in the coming years, the connectivity industry is poised to grow. Established players are looking to take their share as the pie continues to grow. To meet demand, global capacity for fixed satellite telecommunications services is set to almost double by 2023, from 15 to 28 Tbps. This capacity will double again by 2025 and triple by 2028, mainly thanks to constellations: adding OneWeb and Starlink to Kuiper, Lightspeed and Rivada (provided they complete their financing).

2. Market Changes Are Driving Partnerships and Applications

   Emerging applications and partnerships are accelerating in the satcom industry as players adapt to new consumer habits and market changes. Whilst $11.5 billion was raised by emerging companies in 2021, last year, the figure was just $4.8 billion. By two-thirds of the way through 2023, the figure has plateaued at $2.7 billion. There are many reasons for this, starting with the rise in interest rates to 4.25% in Europe and 5.33% in the United States. Investors are becoming more cautious and less inclined to take risks to support emerging players. For newcomers, the first fundraising rounds may become more expensive. The market should enter a new phase of stability, marked more by consolidation than by the multiplication of players. Some are no longer hesitating to announce the end of the "New Space" or even to speak of the deflation of an investment bubble it constituted.

3. The Impact of Launch Scarcity Remains Unsettled

   Launch scarcity is impacting schedules but its effects and duration are still to be settled. New space transportation solutions at both end of the launch markets aim to reduce bottlenecks in the coming years but are still unavailable. Falcon 9 is the only Western heavy launcher providing launch slots despite a busy manifest including flying competitors. Many panelists expressed their views on Starship's opportunities but disagreed on customers’ adoption and timeline.

4. Data Processing and Delivery Are Major Drivers for Earth Observation

   Earth observation players are focusing efforts on better data processing and faster delivery to end users. Sensor diversity and improved quality attracted a lot of discussion. The growing need to tackle climate change presents a transformational growth opportunity for the Earth observation industry. Should launch price decrease, manufacturers may move away from the smallest form factor to larger ones with better performances.

5. Sustainability Is Now One of the Major Drivers of the Space Industry

   From SSA, on-orbit services, insurance, carbon footprint reduction and value-added service to support climate change monitoring and ESG compliance, the space industry aims to be greener and support others to do so. Recent satellite malfunctions are putting immense pressure on the insurance market, and it’s more difficult for space companies to raise funds than it has been in years. Still, addressing climate change requires more data diversity, lower costs, and faster production schedules and provides opportunities. Several panels also focused on creating a safer space operations framework with a burgeoning space situational awareness landscape, which is eager to move towards space traffic management but looks for clearer governance.

Read more from Euroconsult.

About the Author:
Pacôme Révillon is Chief Executive Officer of Euroconsult, based in Paris, France. Under his management, Euroconsult has experienced a continuous expansion internationally, and has strengthened its position as an international reference on the strategic, economic and financial aspects of space activities.